President Donald Trump gave a lengthy defense of his Texas midterm convention Thursday, boasting about its audience and reminding reporters of his successful presidential campaigns in the state.
However, the argument also pointed back to a much less comfortable reality for Republicans: In parts of South Texas where Trump made major gains in 2024, his numbers now appear to be sinking.
Trump was responding to a question about Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, who was reportedly caught on tape complaining that the September GOP convention in Dallas had damaged Republican candidates.
“That convention was a tremendous success,” Trump said, claiming it drew 107 million views, before adding, “I won Texas all three times.”
In audio obtained by The New York Times, Paxton said the convention “dropped our numbers” and that “everybody’s numbers dropped.” His campaign has disputed the report and released its own internal polling showing him leading Democrat James Talarico by three points.
The more striking numbers, however, are coming out of South Texas.
Madison Andrus, an official with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told The New Republic’s Greg Sargent that Trump’s job approval stood at just 36 percent in Texas’ 15th Congressional District and 35 percent in the 34th District.
In the 28th District, Andrus said Trump’s approval was down to 28 percent, while 60 percent disapproved.
“Just 28 percent of people approve of the job he is doing right now, with 60 percent disapproving. It’s just truly abysmal numbers for House Republicans to try to overcome,” Andrus said. He added that South Texans are struggling with the cost of living, which contradicted claims made by Henry Cuellar’s challenger for his congressional seat, Tano Tijerina.
The figures stand out because Trump performed strongly across the region in 2024. Sargent noted that Trump carried the 15th District by nearly 18 points and the 34th by about 10 points. Those margins were part of a Republican improvement in South Texas, where Democrats once dominated federal races.
Another survey from House Majority PAC showed Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz 54 percent to 41 percent in the 15th District. Andrus said voters she is hearing from are focused heavily on everyday costs, including groceries, gasoline, health care and beef. That part of Trump’s response may matter most.
While the president continues to point to past wins, convention crowds and online viewership, Republican candidates in South Texas are dealing with a different problem of whether the voters who moved toward Trump two years ago are still willing to stay with the GOP now.