Intel (INTC) has climbed roughly 157% this year and is one of the best performers in the chip sector. Now a popular research firm says the stock could still rise a lot from here.
Melius Research told investors this week that Intel could roughly double from current levels. That is a call far above almost everyone else on Wall Street.
The call arrives before Intel’s next earnings report, and investors holding the stock are asking whether a target this bold is based on real progress, and if Intel can really deliver.
Why Melius sees Intel reaching $200 in two years
On Sept. 16, Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes reiterated a Buy rating and a $165 price target on Intel. He also laid out a path to $200 within two years, according to Yahoo Finance.
The stock was trading near $97 when the note landed, so the $165 figure implied about a 70% increase, while the $200 scenario pointed to roughly 106% gains.
Reitzes has covered the technology sector for more than 25 years. He ran tech research at Barclays and UBS before joining Melius, and was ranked among the top hardware analysts by Institutional Investor for more than a decade, according to Melius Research. That record is part of why his Intel call drew so much attention.
His call is based on valuing Intel’s two businesses separately. Intel designs and builds the processors that run most personal computers and data center servers, and it also runs a contract manufacturing arm, Intel Foundry, that makes chips for outside customers.
Reitzes estimates the product business and the foundry could each be worth more than $80 a share on their own, which is where the $200 projection comes from.
Melius Research sees Intel doubling to $200 within two years if its foundry business signs major outside customers.JHVEPhoto / Getty Images
What Intel’s foundry bet still has to prove
The path to $200 depends on two things going right. Intel first needs high-volume commitments for its next-generation 14A process, with Reitzes naming possible major clients such as Apple, Tesla, and at least one large cloud provider. Production output for this process would then need to scale by 2028.
Intel’s product business also must keep raising prices without losing customers. Higher prices for AI-capable PCs and steady demand for server chips need to push product earnings above $4 a share.
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There are early signs that Intel’s management believes in the plan. CEO Lip-Bu Tan bought about $10 million of stock at $95 a share in August, and the company raised roughly $20 billion in a share sale at that same price to fund its factory buildout.
The company’s latest quarter was also good, with revenue up about 25% from a year earlier and adjusted earnings that beat estimates, according to Intel. Reitzes wrote that “we see the execution discount narrowing over the next few years” as those investments begin to pay off.
Intel shares rose further after Reuters reported that SK Hynix might lease space at Intel’s planned Ohio plant. That report was short-lived, because SK Hynix pushed back and said “no matters have been determined at this stage,” Yahoo Finance reported.
Where Wall Street actually stands on Intel stock
Of the roughly 32 analysts covering Intel, only 7 rate it a Buy, while 23 Hold, and the remaining 2 have Sell ratings. The average price target sits at $117.56. Melius holds the highest target on Wall Street at $165, so the firm expects Intel to perform far better than most institutions do.
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The cautious side of Wall Street also has credible voices. Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh, a five-star-rated analyst ranked near the top by TipRanks, recently cut his Intel target to $92 and kept a Hold rating, calling the stock “fairly valued” after its big run.
His worry is based on the fact that Intel has posted encouraging results but has not yet signed the outside foundry customers that would prove its manufacturing strategy at scale.
What Intel investors should watch before buying the $200 case
The Melius call is a two-year outlook that still depends on execution. Before it can play out, investors will want to see Intel sign major 14A or 18A foundry customers, and show that it can manufacture profitably at scale. The next checkpoint is third-quarter results, where Intel’s management has guided to earnings of about $0.38 a share.
Intel still spends heavily, and its near-term profits are minimal. The company has a history of delays, and its recent share sale diluted existing holders. Reitzes also raised the idea of a possible foundry separation around 2030 that could unlock value, but it is years away and not guaranteed.
Keeping your investment small as part of a diversified portfolio protects you if customers don’t sign up or if profits fall short. While the $200 call makes sense and could reward patient investors, it relies entirely on execution.
Intel still has to prove it can deliver before that target means anything.
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