Anthropic might soon test how much Wall Street actually believes in the artificial-intelligence boom.
The Claude maker is nearing decisions on key banking roles for an IPO that investors expect to value the company at $2 trillion or more, according to the Financial Times. Morgan Stanley (MS) seems likely to take the “lead left” position, while Goldman Sachs (GS) will oversee stabilization after trading.
That would be an amazing price, even by AI norms.
Anthropic raised $65 billion in additional cash in May, when it was valued at $965 billion. That would mean a public value of $2 trillion, a gain of almost 107% in a few months.
And that’s the whole tale.
Anthropic isn’t only getting ready for an IPO. It may be asking public investors to bless one of the quickest valuation increases in business history.
Anthropic’s $2 trillion number changes the IPO stakes
Morgan Stanley has been discussing share prices with potential Anthropic investors, according to the Financial Times, but its lead role is still unclear. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Barclays (BCS) should also gain significant positions after financing Anthropic.
The “lead left” position is important because the bank in the position often has considerable influence on the price, the allocation of investors, and the overall marketing of the offering.
But the banks are vying for more than status.
Related: Anthropic sends clear message to Wall Street ahead of IPO
Anthropic’s $2 trillion valuation would beat the $1.77 trillion value SpaceX obtained when it went public in June, establishing a new record for the IPO market. SpaceX priced its initial offering at $75 billion, but that later grew to $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their overallotment option.
Anthropic itself has moved with surprising speed.
The corporation raised $30 billion at a value of $380 billion in February, Reuters reported. A $65 billion round in May put its valuation at $965 billion. At the time, Anthropic estimated its run-rate revenue at more than $47 billion.
That implies Anthropic’s private value has tripled more than three times since February.
Wall Street is betting AI can support another historic IPO
The IPO would come at a crucial time for equities in artificial intelligence.
SpaceX’s blockbuster launch demonstrated investors’ appetite to sustain a huge value partially based on aspirations for AI. Anthropic could now be able to take that excitement even further.
There’s a second award for Wall Street, too.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are also seen vying for top spots in OpenAI’s eventual IPO, the Financial Times said. Landing a high berth on Anthropic might bolster either bank’s status as one of the major advisors to the nascent generation of trillion-dollar AI startups.
But Anthropic’s value is a hard bar to clear.
It’s been just a few months, yet investors would be paying more than double the company’s May value of $2 trillion.
That means growth forecasts matter.
Anthropic’s revenue in July was at an annualized pace of approximately $65 billion, below some investors’ more bullish estimates of nearly $80 billion. The competition is heating up, too, as OpenAI has unveiled a new flagship model, with both businesses racing to snatch corporate and developer clients.
Anthropic prepares for a massive IPO as Wall Street fights for a piece.Bloomberg / Getty Images
Anthropic’s IPO timeline is already shifting
One significant element has changed since the Financial Times first reported the story.
The FT indicated Anthropic might publish its prospectus as early as September and begin trading around late September or early October, but Reuters later reported that the timing had slipped.
Anthropic is now scheduled to file its prospectus in late September, start promoting the offering around mid-October, and perhaps finish the listing just ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November.
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The corporation is also closing on an around $15 billion revolving credit facility that includes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup, according to Reuters.
It provides the banks with additional financial ties to Anthropic even before the IPO begins.
Anthropic could become Wall Street’s biggest AI test yet
The temptation is to see Anthropic’s IPO as another marker of the AI boom.
That’s what makes the value something other than that.
The $2 trillion price tag would require public market investors to back a corporation that was valued at $380 billion in February and $965 billion in May.
But that doesn’t mean investors will pass it up. Anthropic’s revenue growth, its technology being adopted by companies like Amazon’s AI unit, and the fact that it is able to raise huge sums of cash all point to unusually high demand for its technology.
But an IPO transforms the crowd.
The private investors are counting on years of growth ahead and can pay high prices. At some point, public investors want to see on a quarterly basis that those expectations are being fulfilled.
That’s why Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs could be pushing so hard for the top spots.
Anthropic may be one of Wall Street’s most renowned transactions. It might also be the most transparent test yet of how far investors will drive the AI boom until pricing itself becomes the danger.
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