On Thursday, a new analysis of potential midterm outcomes by the Wall Street Journal revealed “tough” news for President Donald Trump and the GOP. According to the Journal, with less than 50 days until the election, Trump’s plunging approval rating has dragged down Republicans to the point where the midterms are almost certain to be a big win for Democrats.
“Republicans’ majorities in the House and Senate have cleared the way for President Trump’s key policies in his second term and shielded the administration from investigations sought by Democrats,” writes the Journal. “But keeping control of Congress is proving tough. As voters have soured on Trump, Democrats are favored to take back the House and have about even odds at gaining the Senate majority.” It also notes that history bolsters Democratic chances, as “the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm elections.”
As it stands now, the GOP controls the Senate 53-47, meaning Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. They’re aiming to flip Maine and North Carolina, but other states appear surprisingly vulnerable too, such as Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. According to the Journal, Democrats will retain and are likely to win 46 seats versus a likely 48 to Republicans, with six seats considered toss-ups. The Journal’s assessment indicates that those six, however, lean strongly toward Democrats.
Things are more starkly bad for the GOP when it comes to the House, where the Republican conference currently has a 219-214 majority. According to the Journal, “Democrats are far more likely to win back control, according to election forecasters, despite Republicans redrawing several House districts in their favor.” The paper’s numbers show that Democrats are likely to walk away with 206 seats compared to GOP’s likely 209, but with 20 toss-up seats and the electoral winds at the DNC’s back, experts predict it will easily overtake the Republican lead.
As the Journal notes, the battle for toss-up seats mirrors that of the 2000-2008 election cycles, “as public support for Republicans waned following the unpopular war in Iraq and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, which eroded the GOP’s popularity.” According to the Journal, the past 10 years have seen a notable decline in the number of toss-up elections due to the rise in political polarization and gerrymandering.
What battleground opportunities do remain are proving to be a hard fight for Republicans due to one person. As the Journal explains, “The president’s approval rating has fallen and stayed depressed, in large part due to the war in Iran that has raised gas and energy prices. He has insisted that GOP voters act as if he is on the ballot — but that has become a problem for some Republican candidates in competitive districts. In recent weeks, some lawmakers threw cold water on his idea for $5,000 checks, a Florida congresswoman criticized his deportations and a handful of candidates in tight House races sided with Democrats on a war-powers vote.”
The Journal also notes another trend that doesn’t bode well for the GOP’s chances. According to the paper, “In 2018, the last midterm cycle when Trump was in office, Trump’s approval rating averaged in the 40s. Republicans lost their majority in the House, with Democrats netting 40 seats. However, Republicans bolstered their Senate majority, adding two seats. With the president’s approval rating reaching all-time lows in recent weeks, even GOP candidates in seats once considered safely Republican are facing tough general elections.”