It had to happen sometime. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) had to become so cheap that they became irresistible.It may have happened in the first half hour of trading on July 28. Related: There is an untold story behind SpaceX’s post-IPO swoonThe shares went public at $135 on June 11 and zoomed to $225.64 on June 16, with a market capitalization of nearly $3 trillion. And then slumped big time. The slide was deep and constant, except for a 16% rebound in the last week of June. SpaceX’s share price hit $107.01 just before 10 a.m. on July 28. It promptly turned up, reaching as high as $117.90 at the close, up 3.9% on the day. The market capitalization was $1.55 trillion.That’s about 50% under the peak market capitalization of about $2.97 trillion on June 16. The market cap at $107.1 was about $1.4 trillion. And the abruptness of the rebound off that low is a clear sign of a bottom for now.But the bounce must be welcome news to all SpaceX shareholders, especially CEO Elon Musk, who was once the first trillionaire. A weight on a giant ambitionMusk built Tesla into a viable electric vehicle maker. He has much bigger ambitions, melding artificial intelligence, rocketry and dreams of life on the moon and maybe Mars all through the potential he touts in SpaceX. If SpaceX accomplishes its goals, he said not long ago, “it will will be worth more than the rest of Earth.”The SpaceX price decline has been costly (at least on paper) for Musk. Barrons estimates that his wealth has declined more $650 billion since June 16. That reflects the decline in SpaceX and a 27% decline in the value of Tesla (TSLA) just since June 30.”Musk has lost roughly as much wealth as the next three mega-billionaires, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Jeff Bezos, are worth combined,” Barrons writer Al Root noted.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk speaking by video at a May event. Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesKobi Wolf/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Forcing weighing on SpaceX sharesThere are logical reasons for the selloff:The company is scheduled to report earnings for the first time on Aug. 4.About 911 million shares held by employees and insiders become eligible for sale on Aug. 8, potentially flooding the market. The June 16 price for SpaceX was, well, too darn high: trading at 158.8 times fiscal 2025 revenue of about $18.7 billion, compared with 94.7 times sales in its $135 IPO price.Stocks built around artificial intelligence have also seen selling, Jack Delaney wrote on The Motley Fool.Just as it took years for Tesla to reach profitability, it may take years for SpaceX to turn a profit. And its August 4 report won’t show any profit, analysts believe. The consensus estimate is for revenue of $6.82 billion in the quarter and a per share loss of 29 cents a share.More SpaceX:Beaten-down stock lets you buy SpaceX below market priceElon Musk’s startling claim to SpaceX investorsCiti sends powerful sign to SpaceX investorsWhere the analysts sit on SpaceXHow about the stock price? The average one-year analyst target on the stock is about $230. There are some who go with $300. What Musk must deliver is There’s still a lot of skepticism. Morningstar analysts projected the fair value of the stock at $63 on June 8, before the IPO. Morningstar tends to offer conservative estimates, but it’s worth noting it has not changed the estimate since the IPO.So we will see. SpaceX’s big product now is its Starlink system of satellites and making global communications simpler. The company is betting its future on the success of its reusable Starship rocket that will make satellite deployments and other activities possible, especially its Starmine satellite network.But all that means Musk must deliver (or at least show the roadmap to) on at least two things: Steady cash flows from Starlink.Long-term government launch contracts, or valuation support driving the company’s valuation close to the $135 IPO baseline and beyond.Its ambitions are huge, such as developing artificial intelligence in space environments. And, love Elon Musk or or hate him, he has delivered on much of his ambition.Related: Elon Musk’s startling claim to SpaceX investors