Salesforce (CRM) rarely draws a downgrade from two research firms at once. This week it did.On Thursday, July 9, KeyBanc Capital Markets and Bernstein downgraded Salesforce to a Hold. The stock fell roughly 3% to 4% at its low before steadying the next day.However, what matters beyond the price drop is why both firms stepped back at the same time, and what that means for anyone who owns the stock.The message inside the Salesforce downgradesKeyBanc moved Salesforce to Sector Weight from Overweight. Bernstein also downgraded the stock to Sector Weight from Outperform, according to Investing.com. Both firms had the same concern. The adoption of Agentforce, the company’s flagship AI agent platform, is progressing more slowly than the headline numbers suggest.According to Benzinga, KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader was blunt, saying the only real reason to buy the stock now is that it’s cheap. More AI stocks:Wall Street expects ServiceNow stock to gain 52%, despite AI threatMorningstar drops bombshell warning on AI stocks’Big Short’ investor Michael Burry issues blunt 4-word warning on AI stocksAder’s team kept noting the same thing: customer data is not organized enough for real AI work, and Agentforce “just isn’t there” yet as a product, TipRanks reported.A recent survey of chief information officers, the executives who control software budgets, deepened the worry. More of them plan to trim Salesforce spending over the next year than raise it. The downgrades quickly spread caution across other software names, Barron’s noted.
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff staked the company’s next decade on Agentforce, the AI product now drawing analyst skepticism.Frank Brennan / Getty Images
What “Agentforce isn’t there yet” means for CRM shareholdersAgentforce is Salesforce’s wager that AI agents, software that carries out tasks on its own instead of just answering questions, will power its next decade of growth.Here is the catch for shareholders:Salesforce has sold its software the same way for 25 years, charging per user, or “per seat.” If agents handle work people used to do, customers may need fewer seats, which could shrink revenue rather than grow it. The company is now trying to charge for the work its agents complete instead of for headcount, though that model is still unproven at scale.Related: Salesforce bets another $1 billion despite AI spending cratering its stockThe analyst checks matter because they test the changes the company wants to make against reality. If customers need months to get their data ready before agents can run, the revenue Salesforce promises will arrive later than bulls expect.The numbers Salesforce leans on to defend AgentforceSalesforce released its first-quarter fiscal 2027 report on May 27. According to Salesforce, Agentforce’s annual recurring revenue reached $1.2 billion.That’s up 205% from a year earlier, which is the fastest ramp of any product in its history. Revenue also rose 13% to about $11.1 billion, operating margins set a record, and management raised its full-year guidance, according to an SEC release. CEO Marc Benioff has kept spending into the shift, pledging $1 billion to Switzerland this week on top of earlier commitments to Italy and France, Salesforce reported.That is the standoff. Management points to booming AI metrics, while the analysts who just downgraded the stock hear hesitation from the customers who have to deploy the technology. It is a rare split between what a company reports and what its buyers say on the ground.What CRM investors should watch nextFor readers, the question is simple. Will Agentforce show up in the growth numbers, or stay a promise?Three signals that would ease the bear caseSigned deals set to become revenue over the next year growing in the mid-teens or better.Agentforce revenue climbing well beyond $1 billion on new customers, not just upsells to existing ones.Guidance that beats Wall Street when the company reports next.The stock is hardly expensive after a roughly 37% slide this year. CRM trades near 19 times earnings, pays a dividend, and sits about 80% below its post-2020 free-cash-flow peak, GuruFocus data shows. For perspective, CRM has been one of the Dow’s weakest members in 2026, even as the wider market climbed. Even so, being cheap did not stop the downgrades, as both firms argued that the discount would fade once slower growth is priced in.Salesforce is still a deeply rooted platform, its customers are unlikely to walk away from it. The unresolved question is whether Agentforce becomes a real growth engine. The next earnings report will provide more answers.Related: Top Analyst strongly resets AMD stock price target