As President Donald Trump struggles with corruption scandals, an unpopular war and a struggling economy, Senate races in solidly Republican states are suddenly viewed as competitive, from Iowa and Alaska to perhaps even South Carolina. Now a pair of conservative commentators are arguing that Trump’s Republicans could perform worse in the 2026 midterms than when they lost control of Congress in the 2018 midterms — and the political wounds are primarily self-inflicted.
“I think it was — I apologize, whoever it is, one of the data people I saw on social media was putting this out, and they’re like, ‘Well, what if the electorate in Iowa is actually only a plus-five electorate?'” conservative commentator Tim Miller said on a podcast for The Bulwark in which he was joined by a fellow anti-Trump Republican pundit, Bill Kristol, who replied to Miller by saying, “That’s a good way to put it.”
Miller was not done with his analysis.
“If it’s a plus-11 Trump state, because of the depressed turnout and the increased turnout on the Democratic side, then all of a sudden, can you get enough independent voters to get there across the line?” Miller continued, adding that President George W. Bush suffered major losses during the 2006 midterms in his second term because of his unpopular policies like continuing to let Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld lead during the Iraq War, underperforming relief during Hurricane Katrina and nominating Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. He then compared Republicans’ political plight in 2006 to that facing the party two decades later.
“A big part of the [20]18 gains for the Democrats, the 2018 gains were about this kind of realignment to the suburbs for the Democrats, and places that Republicans used to do well, because of Trump,” Miller observed. “And so they did better there, but the Trump base was still pretty excited in ’18, right? That’s part of the reason why I’m more bullish and think that Democrats are going to over-perform their polls.”
Kristol also pointed out that Trump is struggling with his cabinet picks, noting that Bush appointed “serious” people like Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell.
“It was, you know, a grownups’ administration,” Kristol said. “And suddenly, geez, the Iraq war. Powell leaves, of course, after the first term, and suddenly the grownups — a little less grownups in charge — and then Katrina, total screw-up, just in terms of execution, obviously, as well as the way they talked about it and handled it. Without Iraq, Katrina wouldn’t have made as much difference. And without Katrina, Iraq would have maybe, but they felt they came together in a pretty bad way. And then the scandals [including Bush fundraiser Jack Abramoff] — you don’t really want incompetence and some bad policies and scandals all happening at the same time.”
Both men argued that Trump is facing the same problems as Bush — a demoralized voter base combined with a plethora of unpopular foreign policies, domestic policies and corruption scandals that turn off independents. They also argued that, like Bush, the scandals are self-inflicted because of Trump’s own poor choices. Miller and Kristol openly wondered if Trump could improve his situation somewhat by firing his own controversial Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.
“I remember that at the time I was very anti-Rumsfeld,” Kristol told Miller. “I called for him to be fired after the victory in November ’04, because I thought he had mismanaged Iraq.” Instead Rumsfeld was fired after Bush suffered major midterms losses two years later.