The United States’ 2026 midterms are roughly one and one-half months away, and many GOP strategists are sounding the alarm about President Donald Trump’s consistently low approval ratings and the possibility of Republicans losing one or both branches of Congress. According to New York Times reporter Shane Goldmacher, GOP insiders are looking for signs of hope in a political climate that, according to a long list of polls, appears increasingly favorable to Democrats.
“The bad news for Republicans is that the battleground map keeps shifting to redder and redder territory,” Goldmacher reports. “Places like Kansas — where Democrats have not won a Senate seat in nearly a century — now appear to feature actual, well, races. President Trump’s operation is spending millions of dollars in congressional districts he won by double digits. The good news for Republicans is that almost none of these campaigns are lost causes — yet. District by district, state by state, the races that will decide the majorities remain close.”
Goldmacher adds, “Democrats are still defending some competitive seats that they might have hoped to lock up by now. For instance, they recently plunged in $10 million more to defend a Michigan Senate seat they already hold. With a little more than six weeks until Election Day, that is the tension at the heart of the midterm map. The Democrats have the momentum. Republicans have the map and the money.”
The weeks ahead, according to Goldmacher, will be “critical” for GOP Senate candidates like Georgia’s Mike Collins and North Carolina’s Michael Whatley.
“Republicans haven’t given up on Georgia or North Carolina,” the Times reporter explains. “President Trump campaigned for Whatley last week in North Carolina. Vice President JD Vance will be there on Monday. And Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the Republican majority leader, is headed to Atlanta on Thursday to headline a fund-raiser for Collins. But as Thune said last week, Republicans ‘obviously make decisions when it comes to resources’ on a stretched map.”
Goldmacher adds, “Translation: Improve soon in the polls — or else … Republicans are seeing the same polls that the public is. The Times measured a nearly 9-percentage-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot last week — akin to the margin in the 2018 Democratic wave. But Republicans are openly hoping those numbers are understating GOP support.”
GOP House candidates in tough swing districts, Goldmacher points out, are desperately trying to distance themselves from Trump.
“In a floor vote,” Goldmacher reports, “two Republicans, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Rep. Zach Nunn, both of Iowa and running in top battleground, voted for the first time for President Trump to end the war in Iran or seek authorization to continue it. They had previously opposed restrictions … Another Iowa Republican, Rep. Ashley Hinson, did not attend Vice President JD Vance’s event in the state on Friday.”