A Republican strategist warned a Fox News host that Iran may try to hurt President Donald Trump during the upcoming midterm elections.
“Look, we’re not the only ones who know this. We’re not the only ones paying attention to oil prices,” former President George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove told journalist Paul Gigot on Monday. “Remember, all of these negotiations with Iran need to be completed by the middle of August. The Iranians are not dumb. They know that the fall campaign starts in earnest on Labor Day. I would not be surprised to see them attempt to have an influence on the outcome by creating problems in mid-August, and causing oil prices to rise and uncertainty to grow.”
Earlier in the conversation, Rove cited an upcoming poll by The Reagan Institute which found that the American people want the Iran War to result in Iran having limits imposed on its nuclear weapons programs and regime change that is favorable to the United States. Neither of those things have occurred, and although Iran is currently allowing oil prices to fall through its policies in the Strait of Hormuz, there is no guarantee that they will maintain that policy.
“The president also has been hailing lower oil prices, right?” Gigot said when questioning Rove. “Which means lower gasoline prices. And I think he thinks that that’s going to create a better economic environment on inflation and going into the midterms, and that that will compensate in public opinion for any doubts about how well this Iran war has gone or what the settlement terms are.” Rove then replied to Gigot’s observation by predicting Iran will act in a way to raise oil prices in order to hurt Trump politically.
In May, Rove wrote for The Wall Street Journal that Trump needs “better White House message discipline on the Iran war,” a subject he can understand as he worked for the Bush administration when they prosecuted the unpopular Iraq War. He also argued that the Iran War is hurting Trump in the polls, along with other domestic issues like the economy.
“The GOP’s chances will get worse if President Trump’s approval numbers keep declining,” Rove said. “They’re already dangerously low. Wednesday, his approval hit 39.8 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, the lowest of his second term so far.”
He added, “Making things worse are Mr. Trump’s erratic late-night missives. The president comes across more as a heckler at a UFC match than as a reassuring wartime commander in chief.”
Also in May, Rove warned Fox News that Trump’s and the Republican Party’s attempts to gerrymandering all over America to guarantee that they win elections could potentially boomerang.
“You could in essence take … like here in Texas, take big cities, which are typically Democrat, and split them up among several sort of suburban and rural Republicans and thereby reduce their margin and make [House Republicans] more vulnerable in an election year,” Rove said on “Sunday Night in America” to Fox News host and former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC). After describing how breaking up predominantly Black districts might not even help Republicans in the House of Representatives, Rove added that “nothing ever plays out exactly in politics as we think it does.”
Meanwhile in February, Rove told The Wall Street Journal that “almost everything the president said energized his MAGA hard core. But they aren’t enough to stave off a shellacking this fall.”
He added, “Mr. Trump should have fixated more on those of his 2024 voters who have since become disenchanted: Those represented by his approval rating’s almost 8-point slide in the RealClearPolitics average since re-entering office. That isn’t a large slice of the electorate, but those swing voters will decide which party controls Congress for Mr. Trump’s final two years in the White House.”