I have been watching and covering Micron and SanDisk. The record earnings. Wall Street analysts’ ratings. The HBM supply squeeze. The Michael Burry short on one side and the Soros sevenfold buy on the other. The technical breakouts and subsequent pullbacks.
These two stocks continue to be at the center of the market’s most important theme — AI infrastructure demand. And of course, the debate about where they go next is as live as it has ever been.
Lynx Research on Sept. 4, in a note shared with TheStreet, weighed in with price targets that should get any memory investor’s attention.
The firm set a $1,325 target for Micron (MU) and $2,450 for SanDisk (SNDK), according to the note. Based on current prices of Micron at $1,016 and SanDisk at $1,740, those targets imply meaningful upside for both.
Lynx’s main message is that the wild, hype-driven volatility of May and June is behind us. What has replaced it is calmer, more deliberate institutional buying. They say it’s the kind that tends to precede a real breakout.
The volatility shift Lynx Research says changes everything for Micron and SanDisk
Lynx made a specific and verifiable observation that I think we should take seriously. During May and June, daily price volatility for these stocks nearly doubled normal levels.
The research firm described Micron during that period as “uninvestable.” Of course, this isn’t because the fundamentals were bad, but because the price action was too erratic for disciplined accumulation.
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Actually, that warning proved accurate because I saw Micron surge 19% in June and then drop 28% in July. The stock was being driven by momentum and sentiment, rather than fundamental buyers steadily building positions.
Then August came and changed the pattern. Micron’s daily volatility dropped to 3.5%. The stock quietly climbed 16% in August and 8.9% over the last five days, according to Yahoo Finance. I see that slow and steady price action typically reflects institutional money moving in, rather than retail speculation.
SanDisk tells a similar story. The $2,450 target actually sits above SNDK’s all-time high of $2,354.39, reached June 22, 2026. Lynx is calling for a new price target above the prior peak, which is an aggressive stance that requires the supply thesis to hold.
Both stocks remain top S&P 500 year-to-date performers. SanDisk leads the entire index at 633%, according to Slickcharts, followed by Moderna, Dell, and then Micron at 256.19%.
The supply-demand backdrop that gives Lynx’s thesis its foundation
The Lynx call is grounded in specific market dynamics, as confirmed by the most recent earnings data.
SanDisk’s Q4 fiscal 2026 results showed datacenter revenue of $2.977 billion, up 103% sequentially and 1,298% year over year (YoY).
Datacenter’s share of SanDisk’s total bits grew from 12% in Q4 fiscal 2025 to 38% in Q4 fiscal 2026.
The broader NAND market is expected to exceed $300 billion in calendar year 2026, three times the prior year, and reach $500 billion in calendar year 2027.
Customer demand currently outpaces supply, and SanDisk expects bits to remain on allocation beyond calendar year 2027.Source: SanDisk Q4 Fiscal 2026 Results
On the DRAM and HBM side, Micron’s fiscal Q3 2026 results showed:
Data center revenue exceeded $25 billion, an annualized run rate above $100 billion.
DRAM revenue reached $31.3 billion, up 343% YoY.
NAND revenue hit $9.9 billion, up 361% YoY.
HBM4 revenue shipments have already exceeded $1 billion. Source: Micron Q3 Fiscal 2026 Results
The HBM4 12-high volume ramp is tracking at twice the rate of the HBM3E ramp, and Singapore facility capacity contributions begin in the first half of calendar year 2027.
Data shows the AI supply chain is stretched to its limits, with lead times for critical components reaching 40 weeks, according to a Business Insider report. That suggests these shortages are structural rather than temporary.
Both SanDisk and Micron remain top S&P 500 year-to-date performers. SanDisk leads the entire index at 633%, followed by Moderna, Dell, and then Micron at 256.19%.Saulo Ferreira Angelo Via Shutterstock
What the tech conference catalysts could do for both stocks
Lynx is watching several near-term catalysts:. We have Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference, starting Sept. 8, and the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference on Sept. 9, SanDisk reported.
Presentations or comments from memory companies at these events could either confirm the supply-constraint thesis or introduce demand-softening concerns or faster capacity expansion.
The research firm’s view is that if conference commentary confirms ongoing AI-driven shortages, the breakout Lynx is forecasting could happen quickly. Any hint of easing supply constraints or weaker demand would delay the move.
My read is that both stocks have worked through the extremes. From the parabolic run in June driven by AI enthusiasm, to the fear-driven sell-off in July due to profit-taking and macro concerns.
The volatility compression Lynx describes is a technical setup that precedes a move in either direction but historically tilts toward continuation when fundamentals support it.
SanDisk at $1,740 with a $2,450 target and supply allocated beyond 2027. Micron at $1,016 with a $1,325 target and HBM4 ramp accelerating. Those two conference presentations, and several others, are the next pieces of evidence.
Related: JPMorgan revamps SanDisk stock with massive price target