ATLANTA, GA – JULY 05: Atlanta Braves pitcher Martín Pérez (33) delivers a pitch during the MLB game between the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves on July 05, 2026 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The universe is cold and unfeeling, but also apparently has a bit of a twisted sense of humor. How’s that for a paradox? This is my way of saying that once again, I have game coverage for a Martin Perez start… something I’ve enjoyed less than most things the Braves have devised to put on our screens over the last eight years or so.
If you haven’t heard me talk about Perez Pachinko yet but are somehow reading this sentence, I apologize, but here it goes again: Perez starts tend to have a soporific effect on me because they just feel like ubiquitous winds on which game results blow hither and yon — regardless of anything that really happens. Why is this the case?
Perez doesn’t have good stuff. His pitches all rate from woefully bad to below average in stuff models, both this year and throughout his career. The only exception, and only by one model, is a slider that he no longer throws. This largely comports with my own estimation, where only his sinker is even notable, and it’s notable in the “yeah it sinks and runs a bit more than an average” sinker sense and nothing else.
Perez doesn’t have good command. The stuff models evaluate location, and yeah, his location is somewhat above-average, but in terms of repeating mechanics and getting the ball where he wants it… well, actually! I’m not sure he generally wants it in any specific place. That’s kind of the issue. His changeup at least appears to have a purpose (low, armside edge), but the cutter? It’s just fire and forget and hope you don’t get punished.
Perez has no discernible times through the order split (probably because of the two bullets above), so there’s no usage stuff to watch for.
Basically, a Perez start is one where you hope that your offense rolls a die with a higher value than the die that the opposing offense rolls against Perez. Fun! But also not fun.
Anyway, the Braves were without Perez for a while, as he hit the shelf after being beaned by a comebacker on the forearm on July 5. The situation looked worse than it ended up being, as it looks like he avoided anything beyond a few weeks of layoff, and will now be coming back to a rotation spot.
On the season, Perez has 0.6 fWAR and a 83/106/100 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) in 81 1/3 innings. That aggregate line in some ways obscures a bunch of microclimates — but in the spirit of Perez Pachinko, I’m not sure any of those microclimates really matter. He was terrible in his first three starts of the year (7/6 K/BB ratio in 16 innings), but then really picked it up over his next six outings (28/7 K/BB ratio in around 20 innings), which included a few shorter relief stints. Then he struggled for a couple of starts, was good for a couple of starts, and had a really tough time in his last three outings (6/9 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3). One of those poor recent starts came against the Padres, with a 4/4 K/BB ratio in four frames.
Maybe the layoff will be useful and he’ll be refreshed, but I wouldn’t bank on anything like that. It’s just gonna be Perez Pachinko, godspeed, Braves offense.
Speaking of that offense — after a weird and ineffectual game yesterday against a still-struggling Walker Buehler, they’ll now take aim at Michael King for the second time a month. King has had trade rumors swirl around his name and being as a fairly productive starter on a team whose season isn’t playing out particularly well. He has player options for the following seasons, which makes him not-quite-a-bargain, but he’s been decent (1.7 fWAR in 113 1/3, 82/97/106) and the potential for monetary downside could make him relatively cheap, prospect-wise, to acquire.
King dominated the Braves back in San Diego, with a 5/0 K/BB ratio in seven innings, one of his best starts of the year. He hasn’t pitched all that well since — 83/91/126, but he’s kept the homers at bay and the runs haven’t accumulated either. In some ways, the fact that he’s struggled for a few weeks seems especially irrelevant, if you recall that King had an absolutely horrendous 158/153/132 line in the five starts before facing the Braves… then dominated them, and then has gone back to being okay-ish. So, yeah. The Braves will need to hit better, and hope Perez Pachinko works out in their favor. It’s a tall order against a team they haven’t taken a series from in Atlanta since 2018, but what are you gonna do?
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, July 22, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: None
Streaming: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos