On Wednesday, Newsweek published a new map charting President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating in the country’s top farm states, and it offers a “major warning sign for Republicans” as the economic situation continues to deteriorate with the midterms looming. With diesel prices hitting historic highs due to Trump’s war with Iran, farmers who make up a key part of the GOP coalition are overwhelmingly negative on the president’s leadership.
As Newsweek explains, “Rising diesel prices could have critical impacts for farmers, who rely on diesel to power agricultural equipment. Rising prices could also drive up transportation costs across the agricultural industry. Rising diesel prices stem from disruptions to oil and fuel shipments in the Middle East amid the United States’ war in Iran, which began earlier this year. For Republicans, there is a political risk if farmers, a core part of the Republican base that helped elect Trump in 2016 and 2024, abandon the party or sit out the midterms due to frustration over the impact. Rising prices come just weeks before the November midterms, and Democrats hope to expand the electoral battleground into more conservative states like Iowa and Kansas, where diesel’s impact could be felt most acutely.”
Per the Census of Agriculture, 10 states lead in agricultural sales, including California, Iowa, Texas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, Kansas, North Carolina, Indiana, and Wisconsin. These states run the gamut in terms of political leanings, from reliably blue California, to purple Wisconsin and North Carolina, to typically deep-red Texas and Nebraska. But Newsweek has bad news for the GOP: “Trump’s approval was in the negatives in all of those states except for Kansas, where he remained slightly above water.” Yes, even in Texas, where Trump’s disapproval rating is approaching 60 percent.
These findings come as diesel prices hit a record high on Wednesday, increasing to $6.3103 per gallon. According to Newsweek, “Prices averaged $5.9424 one week earlier, $5.4460 one month earlier and $3.7008 one year earlier. Regular gas prices have also increased to $4.3672 per gallon.” These rising diesel costs drive up expenses across nearly every aspect of the farming industry, and also increase costs for the trucks, trains, and ships that move agricultural products across the supply chain. And as Newsweek reports, farmers have begun speaking out about the problem. Jason Kurtz, a farmer who voted for Trump, told Fortune that “cash-strapped” farms were struggling due to skyrocketing diesel costs and have been forced to make cuts just to make it through harvest. “We have to harvest,” he said. “We have to run the machines. We have to use the diesel, so it cuts into our bottom line.”
According to Newsweek, this situation has made midterm races in the farming states of Iowa, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, and North Carolina unusually competitive this election cycle as disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy and other matters has grown. “Overall,” writes Newsweek, “Trump’s approval rating stood at -26 points in the latest Civiqs poll, with 60 percent disapproving of him and 34 percent approving as of Wednesday.”