Quantum computing is one of the most talked-about emerging technology themes on Wall Street right now. The Trump administration revealed plans to invest more than $2 billion into the sector on May 21. Stocks across the space surged. Investors poured in, massively.But Jim Cramer confirmed that he’s not one of them.On the Wednesday, July 22, “Mad Money” Lightning Round, a caller asked about IonQ (IONQ). Cramer’s answer was brief and direct, just like every other day in the Lightning Round.When rates go up, these stocks are very tough to own, so I am going to steer clear of it because I see what the rates are doing, and they’re not going in the right direction.As of this reporting, IONQ is trading at $33.03, down 3.11% on the session, and is down 24.07% year to date against the S&P 500’s 8.22% gain, according to Yahoo Finance. The stock peaked to a $72 high in late May before giving back more than half its value in just under two months.Also Read: Jim Cramer’s Recent StoriesWhy Cramer’s rate argument is the right one for a stock like IonQCramer’s objection is not about IonQ’s technology or even its commercial traction. It is about the macro environment that surrounds any high-growth, deep-loss company with a long runway to profitability.The rate sensitivity argument is specific and well-established in market history. Companies like IonQ, which are burning significant cash today in exchange for future cash flows that remain years away, are valued using long-duration discount models. More Jim Cramer:Jim Cramer says it may be time to trim comeback stock after 441% surgeJim Cramer’s cryptic comments on key AI supplier turn headsJim Cramer says investors are getting the Mag 7 all wrongWhen interest rates rise, those future cash flows get discounted more aggressively, compressing valuations. When rates fall, the reverse happens. The playbook is familiar.Cramer’s read of the current rate environment is cautious. The stock carries an expected full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss of $310 million to $330 million on $260 to $270 million in revenue, according to its first quarter 2026 financial results. It means the profitability gap is wide enough that rate sensitivity is a legitimate first-order concern, not a secondary one.What IonQ’s Q1 2026 results actually showedBut there’s something genuinely interesting here because the fundamental momentum inside IonQ is real, even if Cramer is choosing to sidestep the stock on macro grounds.Q1 2026 revenue was $64.7 million, up 755% year over year and 30% above the midpoint of guidance.Remaining performance obligations grew 554% year over year to $470 million.The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $260 million to $270 million, implying organic growth of more than 100% year over year.
Source: IonQ First Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Commercial momentum is real. Approximately 60% of revenue came from commercial customers, 35% from international customers, and 35% from multi-product customers, according to the release. IonQ also sold its first sixth-generation, chip-based, 256-qubit system to the University of Cambridge. Related: Jim Cramer gives his two cents about Netflix stockIt was selected for DARPA’s HARQ Program and awarded a $39 million contract under the Space Development Agency’s HALO Program for next-generation tactical space communications.The EPS story is where the market’s concerns surface. Q1 adjusted EPS came in at -$0.34. According to Zacks data, for Q2, the consensus expects -$0.29 per share. Profitability is not on the near-term horizon.
IonQ Q1 2026 revenue was $64.7 million, up 755% year over year and 30% above the midpoint of guidance.Zhou Mu/Xinhua via Getty Images
The May quantum rally that inflated expectations, and the deflation sinceWhat happened in May actually explains a lot of the current setup.The Trump administration on May 21 announced plans to distribute $2.013 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act targeting quantum foundries and computing companies. IonQ was not among the nine named recipients. Yet the stock rallied sharply alongside peers. Why? Investors bought the idea of quantum computing as a national priority rather than picking individual winners within the sector.Related: IonQ stock spikes on massive quantum announcementThat sentiment-driven move carried IONQ to $72 before reality reasserted itself. From the start of June, the stock has given back more than half of that gain in under two months.I find Cramer’s framing of this situation accurate. The May rally was a thematic trade, not a fundamental one. When thematic trades run into a less favorable rate environment and earnings miss EPS estimates, the compression is predictable. IonQ’s Q2 earnings are estimated for Aug. 5. For the stock to rebuild momentum from $33, it either needs a material beat with improved EPS trajectory, or a shift in the rate narrative that makes long-duration growth stocks broadly more attractive again.Looking at it, neither of those is guaranteed in the near term. And that is exactly what Cramer is saying when he steers clear.Related: Jim Cramer reveals 4 surging chip stocks he likes best