A stock can post a solid post-earnings pop and still leave investors wishing they’d waited.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock showed why in October.
After reporting explosive Q3 earnings on October 20, 2026, the stock rose nearly 8% to $159.31 the following day. But by Friday, November 6, the stock had retreated to $134.27, a 16% drop from that post-earnings rally.
Moreover, the stock was also 16.6% below its $160.95 closing price on June 12, when SpaceX made its stock-market debut. Naturally, anyone who chased the earnings excitement was already sitting on a painful paper loss.
Jim Cramer knows the temptation. He’s impressed by SpaceX’s rapidly expanding AI business and says he wants shares for his charitable trust. But on Friday’s Mad Money, he explained why he hasn’t bought them.
A lot of it is about whether investors are paying the right price for that future, especially with multiple uncertainties still hanging over the stock.
Jim Cramer explains why he won’t buy SpaceX stock
Jim Cramer wants to own SpaceX stock, but he just doesn’t want to buy it yet.
On November 6, the Mad Money host said the company’s superb earnings piqued his interest in adding shares to his CNBC Investing Club charitable trust. But growth alone hasn’t settled his concerns.
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Start with the spending.
SpaceX expects Q4 capital expenditures of $35 billion to $40 billion, nearly double Wall Street’s $20.1 billion estimate. Building AI data centers requires a ton of upfront investment, with returns arriving later.
“The company’s projected costs are astronomical,” Cramer warned.
SpaceX also announced a roughly $40 billion financing commitment on October 26, under which an Apollo-managed entity would buy Nvidia chips and lease them to the company.
Cramer worries that additional financing might lead to higher borrowing costs or the issuance of new shares, diluting existing investors. According to GuruFocus, SpaceX’s debt-to-equity ratio, which measures debt relative to shareholders’ equity, stands at just 0.22, below the aerospace and defense industry median of 0.315.
Moreover, there’s another complication. SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to explore a possible combination, as reported by TechCrunch. No deal has been reached, and Cramer fears merger uncertainty and political scrutiny could disrupt expansion plans.
But neither spending nor the merger is his biggest obstacle.
Cramer estimates only about one-third of SpaceX shares are freely tradable today. Staggered lockup expirations through mid-2027 could allow more shareholders to sell, increasing potential supply even if the business continues to grow.
“I think that supply short-term could overwhelm demand,” he said.
Consequently, Cramer expects a better entry price eventually.
Jim Cramer says SpaceX stock’s looming share unlocks are keeping him cautious.Andrew Harnik / Getty Images
SpaceX’s explosive AI growth explains why Cramer wants in
SpaceX’s strong customer and earnings numbers underscore the bull case.
It reported Q3 sales of $14.6 billion, up 161% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA surged 306% to $8.8 billion, while diluted earnings reached $0.35 a share. That’s tremendous growth for a company whose share price has lagged.
In particular, SpaceX’s Super Intelligence division is renting AI computing power, generating $7.56 billion in sales and $4.95 billion in adjusted EBITDA. At 52% of total sales, AI has overtaken rocket launches as the story’s financial engine.
Cramer said Google pays around $920 million monthly for access to computing capacity, while Anthropic’s contracted monthly commitment is expected to reach $3.1 billion by December.
Starlink adds another business, with 13.6 million consumer subscribers as of the end of September, 69% growth in connectivity revenue, wireless expansion, and Starship launches, offering greater possibilities.
That said, Cramer notes that shares trade around 16 times projected 2028 earnings. However, that’s only enticing if SpaceX delivers on the forecasts behind it.
What could convince Cramer to finally buy SpaceX stock?
As we look ahead, SpaceX’s next challenge rests largely on execution, given the state of the AI trade.
Specifically with the stock, additional lockup expirations are expected through mid-2027. More shares will become eligible for sale, not necessarily sold, and perhaps what matters is whether demand absorbs any selling without another sharp decline.
Then comes the AI buildout. SpaceX operated 1.7 gigawatts of computing capacity in September. Elon Musk wants 3 gigawatts by year-end and 13 gigawatts by the end of 2027. Those lofty targets need to be compared with targets linked to construction progress, borrowing costs, and actual cash returns.
Other tests are approaching as well.
Starship’s planned Flight 15 could demonstrate progress toward more frequent launches. Starlink needs to grow beyond its 13.6 million subscribers and turn wireless ambitions into paying customers. Also, any proposed Tesla merger needs clear terms, particularly how existing shareholders would be valued.
Two outcomes are plausible. If SpaceX delivers and the market absorbs newly tradable shares, waiting could mean missing gains. If spending runs ahead of returns or selling accelerates, Cramer may get his better entry point.
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