SpaceX (SPCX) didn’t enter the market quietly.Its blockbuster debut has instantly made it one of the most-watched companies on Wall Street, with investors chasing a rare public-market play on rockets, satellites, Starlink, and Elon Musk’s next frontier.The first major analyst calls are landing after the 25-day IPO quiet period, and Goldman Sachs’ hot take stands out.The bank leans on far bigger ideas than just launch revenue, seeing SpaceX’s AI revenue explode over the next several years, turning AI into a potential centerpiece of the company’s long-term valuation story.So, as Wall Street came for the space race, Goldman Sachs is pointing investors toward the relentless AI race.
Goldman Sachs updates its SpaceX stock outlook after the company’s blockbuster IPO Jean Catuffe/GC Images
Latest SpaceX developments investors are watchingSpaceX’s IPO became the headline event:Reuters said SpaceX raised $75 billion in its June IPO, selling shares at $135, making it the largest IPO on record. The listing also pushed Elon Musk’s net worth above $1.1 trillion.Nasdaq-100 entry came fast:Reuters reported SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 just 15 days after debut, with JPMorgan estimating about $4.3 billion in passive inflows.Wall Street is already split: Goldman set its SpaceX target at $205, while Morgan Stanley went much higher at $300, creating a valuation gap of more than $1 trillion between the lead underwriters, according to Morningstar. The AI angle got louder:TheStreet reported a $30 billion Google compute deal, including roughly 110,000 GPUs, deepening the Starlink-plus-AI infrastructure story.
Sources: Reuters, MarketWatch, TheStreet.
Goldman says SpaceX is not just a rocket stock anymore Goldman Sachs’ SpaceX note makes it clear that the company’s valuation story is no longer just limited to launches, Starlink subscribers, or Elon Musk’s space ambitions. More AI:The new Chinese AI model rattling U.S. tech investorsAnthropic restores access to Mythos 5 for select organizationsSoftBank CEO offers stinging critique of Musk’s AI betIn fact, Goldman sees SpaceX as a future AI infrastructure giant, with space-based computing becoming a critical part of its bull case.The bank reportedly set a $205 price target on SpaceX. Based on the latest quoted price of $160.42, that implies over 27.8% upside from current levels. Though that raises eyebrows for sure, the target is still considerably below Morgan Stanley’s reported $300 target.Though Goldman’s target may appear to be a lot more restrained, according to MarketWatch, Goldman expects SpaceX to double sales this year and reach $352 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030. On top of that, the bank expects free cash flow to turn positive by 2031, years before Morgan Stanley’s reported 2035 timeline.According to Reuters, citing the Financial Times, Goldman expects SpaceX’s AI sales to skyrocket from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, a roughly 100-fold jump. Additionally, it projects that total revenue rose from $18.7 billion to $474 billion over the same period.Those lofty numbers are attributed to SpaceX’s tremendous platform that layers in launch capacity, satellite manufacturing, Starlink distribution, xAI and orbital data centers.At the same time, though, that’s also where the risk sits.SpaceX still needs to scale up Starship, prove space-based AI compute, keep Starlink growing, manage intensive capital needs and avoid regulatory setbacks.Goldman is bullish, but clearly the burden of proof is enormous: SpaceX has to become much more than the company investors thought they were buying at the IPO.What SpaceX investors are watching nextFor SpaceX investors, it’s just the start of the next test.The first earnings report may matter even more, which is expected to drop in late July or August. It offered investors the first real look at SpaceX’s growth, margins, AI spending, and cash burn after the IPO. Moreover, it could also trigger the first big lockup-related share release, depending on the company’s stock performance and other conditions.Then comes execution.Reuters reports that SpaceX is looking to demonstrate space-based AI computing by late 2027, with the first AI satellite expected to use Nvidia chips and computing power comparable to a GB300 rack. Moreover, Starship remains critical to that story because lower launch costs are needed to make Starlink expansion and orbital AI compute work at scale.Hence, even though SpaceX has enormous upside, the stock now needs proof that its AI future is more than just a valuation story.For perspective, SpaceX’s valuation looks remarkably extreme across virtually every metric, according to Seeking Alpha.If we look at the EV/sales metric, which compares total enterprise value to revenue, it sits at 110.2 times trailing sales and 57.8 times forward sales, meaning investors are paying incredibly high multiples for each dollar of sales the company dishes out.Moreover, the price/sales ratio, which looks only at equity value relative to revenue, is at 26.4 times trailing sales and 57.4 times forward sales, suggesting the stock price is baking in years of growth.That means investors are currently paying for a multi-year story around Starlink, launch dominance, Starship economics, and orbital AI.At this valuation, SpaceX needs almost flawless execution, massive margin expansion and no major capital-market hiccup.Related: Nvidia rivals get a rare break in AI race