Although Wall Street’s most recent oil estimates indicate that the savings may only last temporarily, American drivers are finally seeing some respite at the gas pump.
The national average for regular gasoline fell to $4.10 per gallon on Nov. 5, down from $4.23 a week earlier and $4.37 a month ago, according to AAA’s latest fuel-price data.
The decrease is positive for those who have had to pay more for most of 2026. However, the average 15-gallon fill-up costs about $15 more than it did in November of last year, since gas remains more than $1 per gallon more expensive than it was a year ago.
Goldman Sachs is now cautioning that there may be another period of high oil prices.
The investment bank raised its December Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel from $90, citing the possibility of renewed supply disruptions in the Middle East.
For drivers getting ready to travel for the holidays, the forecast raises an unsettling possibility: Gas prices may turn around before families can fully benefit from the current respite.
For investors in Exxon Mobil (XOM), whose profits may rely on whether petroleum prices rise once again or continue their downward trend, it also poses a different dilemma.
Goldman Sachs raises its oil forecast ahead of December
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven revised their outlook on Nov. 1, before the sharp oil-price sell-off following the U.S. midterm elections.
Goldman raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90 and its 2027 average forecast to $88 from $80. It also raised its December prediction for West Texas Intermediate, the primary benchmark for U.S. petroleum, to $94 from $81.
Analysts warned that potential interruptions to Middle Eastern supplies could sustain a substantial geopolitical risk premium, according to Bloomberg’s Nov. 2 report.
Because regional production and shipping routes are unpredictable, Goldman’s base case assumes disruptions averaging 1 million barrels per day.
However, the prediction will be put to the test right away. Brent rebounded to approximately $97 on Nov. 5 after both major oil benchmarks plunged more than 8% in the previous session, according to Reuters.
To meet Goldman’s December goal, oil would need another persistent increase. Supply recovery and Iran-related events will play a major role in whether that occurs.
What $105 oil could mean for American gas prices
A renewed increase in crude prices would threaten the downward trend consumers have enjoyed in recent weeks.
Crude oil is the largest single component of gasoline’s retail price, but refining expenses, distribution costs, and taxes also influence what motorists pay, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Therefore, it is not possible to simply convert Goldman’s $105 projection into a particular gas price.
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However, the possible repercussions are simple to understand. A 15-gallon fill-up would cost an additional $3.75 with a hypothetical 25-cent rise in gas prices, and an additional $7.50 with a 50-cent rise.
The second situation would result in an additional $180 per year for a family that fills two tanks per month. These are not projections; they are examples of the expense.
The danger goes beyond fuel. On Nov. 5, diesel averaged $6.26 a gallon, maintaining pressure on transportation costs that may eventually affect the prices that consumers pay for products.
JPMorgan sees a very different oil market ahead
Not everyone on Wall Street agrees with Goldman’s prediction.
According to JPMorgan, the world’s oil production surpassed demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in October, up from 1.1 million in September.
The bank cited recovering Middle Eastern exports, growing production elsewhere, and weaker consumption, according to Reuters’ Nov. 4 report.
Additional supply might put pressure on oil prices and provide further relief at the pump if those trends persist.
The EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook, scheduled for Nov. 10, could offer another indication of where U.S. fuel prices are heading.
Drivers could find that report and the Middle East’s events more helpful than responding to sporadic fluctuations in oil prices.
Goldman Sachs’ $105 oil call raises a question for drivers.Nexpher Images / Getty Images
What the next oil-price move means for Exxon stock
Exxon’s oil production profits may be bolstered by higher crude prices, and its refining businesses may continue to gain from limited supply of gasoline and diesel.
The potential effect is shown by the company’s most recent performance. Stronger oil prices and refining margins contributed to Exxon’s third-quarter profits of $15.4 billion, up from $7.5 billion a year earlier.
It also generated $19.1 billion in free cash flow and announced plans for $20 billion in share repurchases during 2027, subject to market conditions, according to its Oct. 30 earnings release.
A prolonged spike in petroleum prices would boost Exxon’s upstream profits, but it might also raise family expenses in the United States.
On the other hand, although consumers benefit from lower gas costs, declining oil prices may reduce production profitability.
Alongside projections for oil prices, investors should keep an eye on Exxon’s refining margins, production volumes, and free cash flow.
As of now, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are pointing to quite different results.
Whether American drivers get long-term reprieve or have to deal with yet another costly turn at the pump might be decided in the coming weeks.
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