On Tuesday, Fox News detailed major “warning signs” that the GOP’s reign is finished. The best news the network could find for its conservative audience was that voters “won’t necessarily” hand Democrats control of the Senate, but even that is looking dicey for Republicans, who Fox admits are about to run off a cliff.
“It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms,” the Fox report detailed. “The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat. That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll. The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.”
Translation: Fox’s most optimistic outlook for the GOP is that, at best, its Senate chances are a coin toss, but even then it worries that Democrats could win the majority “with several seats to spare.” The network is essentially writing off the House, admitting that “Democrats have a strong advantage on most key issues,” largely due to Trump’s self-inflicted crisis as “the administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.” According to Fox’s own polling, the conflict and its spiraling consequences have pushed Trump’s approval rating to just 36 percent – the lowest the network has found for him over either term. In the same survey, Fox found that voters prefer Democrats to handle key problems caused by the war, giving the party a lead of 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership, and 9 points on foreign policy.
This voter anger comes as the electoral map was already tight for Republicans. As Fox notes, if the Democrats retain all their current Senate seats, the party only needs to flip two red states blue to take a majority, and could end up with a decisive majority of 53 seats. Fox has no good news for Republicans in regard to the House, where the network warns a total of 240 seats could end up blue – a blowout considering the GOP currently holds its majority with just 218 seats. And as Fox writes, “Nineteen more races have shifted in the Democrats’ direction this week, all on the same themes outlined in the last House update: national and district polling, top-of-the-ticket strength and rural voter erosion.”
What’s more, Fox predicts that the GOP will take a lashing in regard to governorships as well. Republicans have just three close gubernatorial races leaning their way, compared to the Democrats’ five. And while most maps were recently listing five states as toss-ups, Ohio has shifted to leaning blue after Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy ran a now infamous ad against Democrat Amy Acton. According to Fox, “The businessman and one-time presidential hopeful has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career. This ad is unlikely to help.” At the same time, the Republican lead in traditionally solidly red states like South Carolina and Mississippi has narrowed. With all this in mind, Fox has a shrugging take on the GOP’s changes: “We’ll find out in seven days.”