ATLANTA, GEORGIA – AUGUST 1: Martín Pérez #33 of the Atlanta Braves delivers during the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on August 1, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Casey Sykes/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Somehow, Martin Perez and I are inextricably linked in the shimmering web that is the universe. It could be worse, perhaps.
The Braves are on quite a roll, having won seven in a row. They’re also on quite a run prevention stretch as part of this winning streak (and a little beyond). Since letting the Mets raze Connor Thomas into the ground, the Braves have allowed four or fewer runs in their last eight games; they’ve allowed three or fewer in each of their last five. They’re not necessarily pitching all that well — despite the league’s best ERA going back to July 29 and its seventh-best FIP, they’re still firmly middle of the pack by xFIP — but great defense and a favorable HR/FB cures a lot of run prevention ills.
Perez has been deeply ensconced in this fortuitous stretch. Early last week, he had another underwhelming start against the Mets, his fifth outing in a row with meh to bad pitching. He departed a tie game after five innings; in came Thomas for his obliteration. After that, the Braves have kept opponents largely off the board, including Perez himself, who broke his extended stretch of poor pitching by dominating the Nationals last Saturday: six strikeouts, two walks, and all goose eggs in a season-high seven innings. It was Perez’ longest outing in nearly a calendar year, and his best since a generally more-successful stretch he had earlier in the year. The kicker was that Perez wasn’t even scheduled to start that day: he was tapped to perform less than an hour before game start after scheduled starter Reynaldo Lopez went down with a knee issue.
On the season, Perez is now at a 77 ERA-, 104 FIP-, and 99 xFIP-. It’s been a bit of a coup for about $3.5 million (which might be a high-end estimate given that he was DFAed by Atlanta earlier this season), considering how many worse-performing starters signed for “real major league money” in the offseason. While his aggregate performance isn’t any better than “fine” and it drives me crazy (maybe you too) by dint of his pitching style, he’s up to nearly 100 innings of decent starting pitcher production at this point. It remains to be seen whether his recent great start was the result of the Nationals being unprepared for the starter swap — it’d be lame if the Braves’ awesome run prevention streak ends tonight — but we’ll see some Perez pachinko either way (unless the game gets rained out or whatever).
A small note is that if this game does occur, it will be Perez’ second time facing Miami this season. The first was wild: he dominated to the tune of a 10/2 K/BB ratio achieved in just five innings, but was charged with four runs, including a leadoff homer, by the time he departed. (The Braves didn’t care, they stormed back with six unanswered runs in the final five frames.)
At 58-57, the Marlins are hanging out in the NL Wild Card race. They currently trail the Phillies and Diamondbacks by three games for that final spot. To avoid a sweep, they’ll send Janson Junk (108 ERA-, 100 FIP-, 102 xFIP-) to the hill. The Braves clobbered Junk back in May, with Austin Riley hitting a three-run homer early, and then Dominic Smith chasing him with another three-run homer in the middle innings. The Marlins and Junk probably hoped he’d build on a really nice 2025 where he posted 2.5 fWAR in just 110 innings, which was partly driven by a teeny-tiny walk rate and also highly influenced by a six percent HR/FB. However, the walk rate has increased and the HR/FB has jumped back to normal, hence Junk’s fairly generic stats. He’s been more or less the same guy month to month, too. He won’t strike a lot of guys out, whether he’s walk-prone seems to vary substantially from start to start, and yeah, you can hit homers off of him now. All of that lines up for another comfortable win… but that doesn’t mean it’ll happen that way.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Thursday, August 6, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV/Streaming: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM