Dyed in the wool conservative Nick Catoggio tells the Dispatch that President Donald Trump has managed to succeed where many other U.S presidents have failed — in pushing Russia into a hot war with the rest of NATO, that is.
“Strange as it may sound, in many ways this is an opportune moment for Putin to confront the West,” wrote Catoggio, citing Trump’s CIA chief fretting that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is mulling the prosect, and considering it soon.
But why would Russia try it now? Because even more so than usual, “an overextended White House is compelled by circumstance to think twice before involving America in any new wars,” Catoggio answered.
“Logistically, the U.S. is in no position at the moment to wage a two-front war of its own,” Catoggio reports, citing a Wall Steet Journal report claiming Precision Strike Missile and Army Tactical Missile Systems are crucial to repel a Russian land invasion.
“Thanks to Trump’s folly in Iran, we’re a little short on both,” Catoggio rants.
But Trump is more than a president with a wasteful bonehead in charge of his military. He also cultivates “fecklessness and ideological sympathies” with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
“Trump has always craved détente with authoritarian Russia; no president since the Cold War has been more reluctant to confront Moscow militarily than he is,” said Catoggio. “He’s also a ripe target to be terrorized by an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ ploy, as he’s been bleating about the Ukraine war as a prelude to World War III since his last presidential campaign — and chastised Zelensky about it to his face during the latter’s infamous Oval Office visit in 2025.”
Worse, the president is also “chronically aggrieved at Europe,” said Catoggio, particularly after America’s NATO allies declined to “join his silly war in Iran.”
“It’s easy to imagine him reacting to news of a Russian invasion of Poland with a shrug: ‘They didn’t help us with the Strait of Hormuz, why would we help them with Putin?’ I wouldn’t even put it past Trump to dial up the Kremlin and offer to recognize their authority over the territory they’ve seized if they can persuade Iran to reopen the strait. He’s a fan of quid pro quos, you may have heard,” said Catoggio.
If nothing else, Trump might refuse to join a military effort to push Russian troops out of NATO territory because he’s afraid of what a war in Europe would do to the U.S. economy.
“[It] wouldn’t be the first time that he sold out to a rogue regime to spare himself a presidential legacy of economic hardship,” said Catoggio.
But Trump is already looking like a meek, weak leader, and a Russian invasion would compound his “show of weakness in Iran with a second, more consequential show of weakness toward Putin.” After enough surrendering the kids on the schoolyard “whom you’re hoping to bully in the future might begin to draw certain lessons about you,” said Catoggio.
“My guess is that the president would approach a Russian incursion into NATO territory the way he’s approached U.S. backing for Ukraine, splitting the baby by reducing America’s support without ending it altogether,” he concluded.