Turning Point USA (TPUSA), the conservative organization founded by the late Charlie Kirk, appears to be facing a critical test of its political influence. Politico’s latest analysis examines whether the group’s $18 million investment in Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs could backfire. In the wake of Kirk’s death, questions are mounting about TPUSA’s political credibility and its ability to influence the Republican Party.
Though Biggs was the last candidate Kirk personally endorsed before he died in 2025, trust within the organization has since seemingly rapidly declined. The $18 million investment is the largest financial support the organization has given in the current cycle. And the investment is not proving to be a good one, considering that Biggs is struggling against Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. Questions are continuing to rise about whether Turning Point’s investment can change the outcome of the race.
“It’s a legacy thing for them,” former Rep. Matt Salmon said. “This is their swan song. This is kind of all-or-nothing for them.”
One of the biggest criticisms is that Turning Point delayed its biggest spending until September, four months after Hobbs began airing general-election television, which seemingly gave her a head start and favor with the general public. Republicans are questioning the organization’s strategy.
Beyond the midterms, the organization’s strategy, or lack thereof, spectators feel can also impact the 2028 presidential race. Turning Point officially has endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president. In the case of Hobbs’ victory, some Republicans may question whether Vance should rely on the organization’s existing foundation in Arizona and other swing states.
Gina Swoboda, a former chair of the Arizona Republican Party who has publicly clashed with Turning Point USA, said Vice President JD Vance should reconsider relying on Turning Point Action as his campaign’s ground operation if he plans to run for president.
Turning Point is standing firm in its decisions. The organization says its strength lies in grassroots operations rather than traditional advertising, which includes television ads. It also blames other national Republican groups for failing to invest early enough in Arizona overall.
“Turning Point Action’s investments both on the ground and over the airwaves in Arizona have been tremendous. We are very grateful they’ve stepped up to support Andy and Republicans up and down the ballot in an extremely difficult environment,” Biggs campaign spokesperson Drew Sexton said in a statement.
Kirk’s legacy is now on the line. A Biggs victory could cement Turning Point USA’s political influence and validate Kirk’s predictions of the Republican Party. A loss, however, could expose the limits of the organization’s power and raise serious questions about whether it can sustain Kirk’s influence within the GOP.