Veteran journalist Ron Brownstein sat down with ex-Republican Bill Kristol of The Bulwark, where they discussed the practicality of Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas desperately trying to hold onto power for the next six years.
As the election nears, both Brownstein and Kristol mocked Democratic donors for being more obsessed with the House flip when the Senate should be the bigger focus, given what’s at stake for the U.S. Supreme Court.
“You know, you can make a case that after you get past 230 or 232 in the House you’re renting seats for two years that you’re going to give back,” Brownstein explained. “Like, so what, you know? I mean, like, really. The Senate is six years, okay? How old are Alito and Thomas?”
Alito is 76 years old, and Thomas is 78 years old.
“Every additional Senate seat reduces the odds of Republicans regaining the Senate before 2030 and maybe 2026, given how little playing field there normally is,” said Brownstein.
Indeed, a glance through the seats up for reelection in 2028 shows fairly safe Democratic and safe Republican seats. One exception could be Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) has turned so far right in a very purple state that a well-funded moderate could down the man who will turn 73 that year.
In 2028, there will be 34 Senate seats up for reelection. Brownstein explained that Democrats have zero U.S. Senate seats in the states that voted for Trump in the last three elections. Democrats have only one U.S. Senate seat in the 19 states that voted three times against Trump. So the movement will be very small.
“So, if Democrats can swipe in a historically bad year seats in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, much less South Carolina and Florida, you could build a cushion that will make it very hard for there to be a Republican Senate, I think before 2030 and probably 2032. Which would require Alito and Thomas to stay on six more years.”
In six years, Alito will be 82, and Thomas will be 84. Justices living past 85 like the late Sen. Ruth Bader Ginsburg are rare. A 2016 report on the court found that justices appointed after 1970 leave the court (through death or retirement) at roughly 79 to 81 years old. Justice Alito told CBS News that he’s considering retirement, but not until “next year,” meaning 2027.
A few days after the statement, he confirmed more clearly to Bloomberg News, “I intend to stick around through this term. I made that decision many months ago.”
If Democrats take back the U.S. Senate, someone in the GOP will likely do the math and pressure Alito to leave during the two-month lame-duck session before Republicans are out of power.
Kristol said he and his colleague Tim Miller “pull our hair out” over the Democrats’ obsession with the House as “the key” when the Senate is inches from being grasped.
“Are you kidding me? The House is done,” said Kristol.
Both men agreed that there’s not much difference between 235 and 255 seats in the House. But there’s a huge difference in winning one Senate seat in a reliably red state.
It isn’t just about U.S. Supreme Court justices; it’s also about federal judgeships, which have been the backstop for President Donald Trump’s executive orders and other unilateral decisions.
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