ATLANTA, GA – JULY 21: Austin Riley (27) of the Atlanta Braves bats during the Tuesday evening MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres on July 21, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Not like the Braves could really do worse against Michael King…
It’s been a bit of a whirlwind for Austin Riley — he was hitting sixth or seventh for a long while, but then moved up to cleanup against a southpaw on Monday, and stayed there against Walker Buehler on Tuesday. With a right-hander on the mound in Michael King, he’s dropping to fifth. Mike Yastrzemski starts again at DH, as the Braves implicitly vote that a righty-hitting Brewer Hicklen is currently more palatable than a lefty-swinging Dominic Smith, even against a righty. One funny part of all this is that Mauricio Dubon drops to seventh for the first time in nearly two months of play. So, this will be the 82nd different lineup the Braves will have used in 101 games.
As for the Padres, it’s a familiar cast of characters for Martin Perez to tackle. Jase Bowen hasn’t played much at all (50 PAs so far) and gives them another righty bat, albeit one that hasn’t hit in those 50 PAs.
Everyone in this Braves lineup other than Jim Jarvis and Brewer Hicklen have faced Michael King, which makes sense given that he dominated the Braves a few starts ago. Still, no one has double-digit PAs against him other than Yastrzemski. The combined line is a .280 wOBA and .328 xwOBA in 59 PAs; if the Braves can manage something akin to that xwOBA, it may not be enough to win, but it’d probably at least feel decent.
Because Martin Perez has been around forever, a lot of Padres have a decent tally of PAs against him. Manny Machado has crushed him in 20 PAs, while both Ty France and Xander Bogaerts have been various flavors of decent in around 20 PAs each. In aggregate, we’re talking 92 PAs of .334 wOBA / .344 xwOBA with every batter in the lineup having faced him at least twice. I’m not sure that’s really predictive of an issue given that Perez is Perez, though.