Anthropic is reportedly preparing for what could become the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, but a growing financial concern could complicate its valuation ambitions.
The artificial intelligence company behind Claude filed its S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Oct. 26, targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT at a valuation of between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, according to Reuters.
A credit warning from one of Anthropic’s financial partners is raising questions about whether the company can sustain such an ambitious valuation.
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Blackstone walks back its investment-grade forecast for Anthropic
Blackstone, an anchor investor in Anthropic’s $63 billion chip-financing deal known as Project North Star, told investors that Anthropic is now unlikely to receive an investment-grade credit rating after its IPO, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 30.
The firm now expects a double-B range rating, the highest tier of “junk” debt, a notable reversal from its year-end investment-grade guidance.
That reversal has direct financial consequences, because an investment-grade designation would open access to the $12.1 trillion corporate bond market, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, substantially reducing borrowing costs.
Anthropic’s $15 billion revolving credit facility releases guarantees and collateral only after at least two major agencies have assigned investment-grade ratings, the S-1 showed.
This means a junk rating would lock in higher borrowing costs just as the company prepares to fund hundreds of billions in long-term infrastructure spending.
A junk rating would also shrink the pool of institutional buyers for Anthropic’s future debt. Insurance companies face risk-based capital charges on speculative-grade holdings under National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) rules, reported by the American Academy of Actuaries.
Many pension fund investment policy statements limit high-yield exposure, thereby reducing the natural buyer base relative to investment-grade issuance.
That regulatory barrier limits how much institutional capital Anthropic can attract each time it returns to the bond market.
KBRA assigned Anthropic the highest junk-grade rating in June
Blackstone’s revised outlook followed an earlier signal. Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) assigned Anthropic a BB-plus issuer rating with a stable outlook in June 2026, one notch below investment grade, according to documents reviewed by the Financial Times.
That rating accompanied a $35 billion chip-financing deal led by Apollo Global Management, in which roughly $4.4 billion of junior debt exposed lenders to Anthropic’s credit risk at approximately 8.5% yield.
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KBRA is smaller than Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch, and those three agencies will ultimately determine Anthropic’s formal credit rating after the IPO. None has published a rating yet, and both Anthropic and KBRA declined to comment.
KBRA used a proprietary risk-scoring system rather than a full financial model because Anthropic did not disclose free cash flow or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have since held talks with the major agencies on Anthropic’s behalf to secure investment-grade status, the Financial Times reported.
Anthropic’s BB-plus rating highlights growing credit concerns as major investment banks seek investment-grade status ahead of its IPO.VCG / Getty Images
Anthropic’s $518 billion in locked-in spending sharpens the credit risk
The credit rating carries such weight because of the scale of what Anthropic has already committed to pay.
Anthropic’s S-1 discloses at least $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure obligations over roughly a decade, with about 80% either non-cancellable or payable regardless of usage, Reuters reported.
The S-1 filing showed first-half (H1) 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion, up fourteenfold year over year, while computing spending nearly quadrupled to $9 billion.
The headline $80.7 billion net loss was dominated by a $72.4 billion non-cash charge tied to rising convertible-note valuations, and the underlying operating loss was $693 million.
Harrison Rolfes, senior research analyst at PitchBook, estimated in a Morningstar interview Anthropic’s gross margin at about 44%, well below the roughly 70% that mature software companies generate.
<strong>That’s accounting for anything and everything I could piece together. That number seems realistic, but it is not enough to compete with SaaS companies. And it isn’t really attractive to public market investors, because we know Anthropic has too large of commitments that extend out to 2030-32</strong>.
Rating agencies will need to see margin expansion confirmed in quarterly filings before adjusting their assessments, and whether Anthropic can close the gap toward Microsoft-like margins remains the open question in the credit case.
What the credit gap signals for investors sizing up Anthropic’s IPO
Independent research firm New Constructs estimated Anthropic’s fair value at $150 billion, calling the offering the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026,” CNBC reported.
Chan Ahn, former executive director at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, told Benzinga that a $2 trillion valuation would demand exceptional revenue growth and margin expansion.
Tony Trzcinka, investment grade portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management, offered a more measured view, telling Bloomberg that Anthropic’s current leverage could support an investment-grade rating.
He said rating agencies would need to assess its commitment schedule, short operating history, and complex relationships with cloud partners that serve as investors, customers, and suppliers.
Anthropic reported adjusted profitability in the third quarter and projected 2028 revenue between $190 billion and $200 billion, Reuters reported, suggesting the growth engine remains intact.
The rating decisions expected after listing will test whether institutional appetite can sustain a $2 trillion valuation, or whether the absence of pension funds and insurers from the buyer pool forces the market to reprice what the AI boom is worth.
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