You can be forgiven if, lately, you’ve filled up your gas tank and didn’t dare look at how much you were paying.
Fact is, oil prices, gasoline prices and, yes, even diesel prices have been falling the last week and may continue to fall in the next weeks.
But I must offer a BIG caveat: The statement applies only if hostilities don’t break out again in the Middle East.
That question probably won’t be answered until after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Gas prices take a fall tumble
The U.S. national average price of gasoline was $4.169 a gallon on Nov. 2, according to AAA Fuel Prices data, down nearly 6% from the end of September and 0.3% since Halloween, which was Oct. 31. GasBuddy.com data puts the decline at 7.9% since Sept. 30.
Diesel prices have also come down, though not as sharply as gasoline. AAA put the average at $6.292, down 2% since the end of September. Diesel prices were up as much as 83% on Sept. 22, when the national average hit $6.528 a gallon.
Light sweet crude oil, the benchmark U.S. crude finished at $96.46 per 42-gallon barrel, down $7.66, or 7.4%. Brent, the global benchmark, was at $104.77 a barrel, down from $113.43 a barrel on Oct. 30 and off 10% from a recent high of $116.72 on Oct. 23.
Two catalysts are at work:
Fuel prices typically fall in the autumn as overall driving declines with the end of the summer driving season, said Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor for Gulf Oil.
There is new chatter that suggests the United States is willing to see if new peace efforts can result in serious talks to resolve the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
Anadolu / Getty Images
Iran and U.S. officials are at least listening
The chatter comes from a number of sources and includes a statement from Iranian officials that the Strait of Hormuz could be totally reopened if the Trump Administration offers terms that meet Iranian demands.
Exactly what that means isn’t clear. Last summer, Iran was demanding the United States pay to rebuild all the damage bombs and missiles have done to the country. It still wants Israeli involvement in Lebanon and Gaza ended and the withdrawal of U.S. Navy ships from the Persian Gulf.
More Oil & Gas:
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On Nov. 2, President Trump said Iran is pushing for a settlement, but he has been saying that since early March. The president also said that he is inclined to let talks now ongoing in Doha, Qatar, and Tehran, the Iranian capital, run their course.
Axios reported over the weekend that Trump had personally told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. wanted to see if diplomacy could work.
Oil stocks slide with oil prices
The oil price decline set off a selloff in oil stocks. ExxonMobil (XOM) fell 3.9% to $180.03. Chevron (CVX) dropped 3.1% to $228.23.
The oil-price drop did set off a sizable overall market rally early on Nov. 2. The rally, however, lost steam in the afternoon as technology stocks weakened again.
A week ago, concern about heavy investment in artificial intelligence set off some heavy selling. Intel (INTC) fell 28% on Oct. 30 and an additional 8% to $60.50 on Nov. 2.
Related: Oracle stock sinks as Wall Street confronts a $20 billion AI problem