Imagine seeing $1,900 disappear from a $10,000 investment in less than a couple of weeks, and it has nothing to do with an earnings report.
That’s been the unfortunate reality for Nvidia (NVDA) investors lately, with the stock falling from $213.66 on October 29 to $173.73 by November 11.
Over the past six months, the stock has shed nearly 20% of its value, a stunning decline for a company whose shares have delivered a roughly 260% return over the past three years, according to Seeking Alpha.
Now Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, rated five stars by TipRanks, just made a startling move by halving his price target on Nvidia stock, while downgrading the shares. Interestingly, Rasgon has an 81% success rate on his Nvidia calls, lending further credibility to his forecast.
Rasgon still believes Nvidia’s AI business is robust, but his bigger concern was whether the company could preserve what made it extraordinary without CEO Jensen Huang at the helm.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon cuts Nvidia’s stock target amid CEO leadership uncertainty.picture alliance / Getty Images
Bernstein’s $200 Nvidia target reveals an unusual Wall Street reversal
In a November 11 note, Rasgon lowered Nvidia stock’s rating from Outperform to Market Perform. His new $200 target is 50% below the old one, though it still implies nearly 15% upside from Wednesday’s closing price of $173.73.
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According to Rasgon, customer demand remains as strong as ever, and Nvidia can operate efficiently without immediately losing momentum. Over the long term, though, the big question is who makes the bets on products, partnerships and technology five or 10 years ahead?
The 5-star analyst rates Huang highly and hails him as a transformative leader responsible for decisions that helped create Nvidia’s leadership position in the AI race.
At the same time, Rasgon was skeptical that engineers and executives who’ve made a ton of money already would remain as committed without Huang. Partnerships, regulation and talent retention might even prove harder to manage.
Here’s what Jensen Huang had to say during his December 3, 2025, appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience:
“The phrase ‘30 days from going out of business’ I’ve used for 33 years.”
Speaking about the uncertainty, Rasgon said:
“I’d rather watch the circus from outside the tent at this point.“
Nvidia names interim CEO just days before earnings
The developing governance controversy surrounding Nvidia’s founder and long-time CEO has now resulted in a leadership shakeup, sending shockwaves across Wall Street.
On November 8, Huang publicly acknowledged infidelity and apologized to his family and Nvidia colleagues.
Separately, Nvidia announced an independent investigation following reports that he had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The board said it had no reason to believe company secrets or national security had been compromised and expressed confidence in Huang’s leadership.
On November 10, independent directors announced that outside legal counsel will be conducting the investigation. However, things may have taken a turn for the worse as fresh reports raised questions about another alleged personal relationship, and Reuters reported that the board met on November 11 to consider Huang’s future.
That uncertainty has now led to a confirmed departure.
On November 12, Nvidia announced that Huang had resigned as CEO, president, and board member, and that CFO Colette Kress had been appointed interim CEO while it searches for a permanent successor. Harvey Jones was also appointed Nvidia’s first-ever board chairman.
Nvidia shares, already under pressure, fell more than 10% in premarket trading following the resignation announcement, according to Reuters.
As I covered this week, veteran analyst Jim Cramer, meanwhile, is reconsidering the famous Nvidia investing rule he has repeated for years: “Own it, don’t trade it.”
And on the November 11 episode of Mad Money, Cramer warned:
“A Jensen-less Nvidia is an Nvidia many will not want to own.“
Nvidia’s enormous earnings power creates a difficult decision for investors
I guess what makes Bernstein’s dramatic Nvidia stock downgrade notable is the financial backdrop.
Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 sales surged 106% from a year earlier to $96.2 billion. Its data-center division delivered $89 billion in revenue, up 117%, spearheaded by the relentless AI demand.
Moreover, management guided for $108 billion in fiscal Q3 sales, plus or minus 2%, with a gross margin around 74%.
Those numbers are a big reason why other major banks haven’t abandoned Nvidia.
Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 target, while Bank of America maintained its recommendation and set a $350 target.
But to be fair, Nvidia investors are paying for years of expected innovation, even as the leadership responsible for that vision is uncertain. Despite the pullback, Nvidia stock is still trading at around 19 times non-GAAP earnings, as per Seeking Alpha.
And this extends to index-fund owners. Nvidia accounted for nearly 6% of the S&P 500 at the end of October, giving everyday investors exposure even if they never bought the stock directly.
The next checkpoints are Nvidia’s November 17 earnings, its outlook for AI infrastructure spending, and how the concrete succession plan unfolds.
Rasgon’s $200 target still leaves potential upside.
After such a steep downgrade, the bigger question is no longer whether Nvidia can keep growing. It’s whether investors can continue to count on the leadership that helped make that growth possible.
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