If President Donald Trump is waiting for some kind of salvation to yank himself and Republicans from the jaws of calamity in November, conservative National Review writer Dan McLaughlin says he should probably stop watching the skies. Because that’s not happening.
“A perennial phenomenon every election season is the ‘October surprise,’ or some lesser version of the same: an event after Labor Day that, rather than boost or damage just one statewide or local candidate, changes the trajectory of elections nationwide,” said McLaughlin. “… Donald Trump has one very large rabbit he could still pull out of his hat: a successful end to the war with Iran. But with early voting beginning as soon as the start of October in some jurisdictions, time is running short.”
Trump’s problem is twofold, said McLaughlin. For starters, wars don’t end quick—and it’s a pity Trump fooled himself into thinking it would when he launched his first attack against Iran in February. While it may be possible for Trump to declare defeat and hope Iranian leaders are onboard with ending the conflict without a pound out of Trump’s hide, reaching a status quo that can be plausibly called a success isn’t likely to be quick.
And even then, the war isn’t over as far as voters can tell, because the inflation that Trump caused by starting it likely won’t tamp down by November.
The second problem for Trump is chronic, said McLaughlin: “Americans don’t trust what Trump tells them, or what an administration that answers to Trump tells them.”
Trump won two national elections because people trust him in some ways, said McLaughlin. They trust him to be tough on the border and immigration. They trust him to disregard norms, and conventional wisdom “when these work to subordinate American interests to wider global interests.” Until he blew his credit with a tariff frenzy, they trusted him to deliver prosperity, said McLaughlin.
“But even many people who vote for Trump have always understood that he’s a blowhard … who will always put the best spin for himself on anything,” said McLaughlin. “That bit him badly during Covid, when there was no enemy to fight and people needed a leader they could trust to be straight with them. And it’s bad news in wartime, when the same trustworthiness is needed.”
Alas, all of this means the rabbit is likely “to stay stuck in the hat through Election Day,” said McLaughlin.
“Trump can probably get out of this looking like a winner only if the Iranians fold — and they are never inclined to do that, even if a purely rational reading of the American electoral situation would teach them that Trump will never be more dangerous or unconstrained than in the two months between getting a midterm electoral pasting and having to deal with a newly elected Democratic Congress,” McLaughlin added.