While the Republican Party has made redistricting a key part of its political strategy — particularly after President Donald Trump demanded the gerrymandering of Texas last August — a new internal memo reveals that the GOP is worried that it will lose the upcoming round of redistricting battles in 2028, warning that the resulting map could deliver a “permanent Democratic House majority.” This is according to the conservative outlet the Washington Examiner, which on Wednesday reported on a memo entitled “Battle Beneath the Ballot,” in which the Republican State Leadership Committee argued that the party’s failure to invest in down-ballot state legislative elections could mean the decision to launch a redistricting war was a huge mistake.
As the Examiner explains, the memo revealed that “Democrats’ four largest groups involved in state legislative elections will outspend the RSLC’s commitment of more than $50 million by almost three-to-one. Republicans have a huge fundraising lead nationally, with the likes of MAGA Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC, holding a $400 million war chest. But all the signs are that it will be spent on congressional and gubernatorial races, rather than less glamorous down-ballot fights.” The Democrats, meanwhile, have a robust state-level plan. According to the Examiner, “This year four major Democratic organizations have publicly announced significant spending plans: the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee at $50 million, Forward Majority at $30 million, LCV Victory Fund at more than $50 million, and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee at $4 million. In all, they are committed to spending more than $134 million.”
“This flood of national liberal dollars into state legislative races should concern everyone who does not want to see a permanent Democratic House majority,” warns the memo. While the RSLC asserts that more money should be spent at a state level “to ensure the best possible House battlefield in 2028, it also points to the 2030 census, in which all 50 states will redraw their voting maps. “If we are serious about preventing a permanent Democratic House majority,” the memo reiterates, “we must recognize that the fight for Congress begins in state legislative districts, not in congressional campaigns,” explaining that a handful of seats will have a major impact on key districts. The Republican Party, says the memo, should focus its efforts on state legislatures in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as state senate wins would allow them to shape up to 12 House districts, potentially delivering a major boost to the GOP on a federal level.
The report comes as polling shows Republicans face major headwinds going into the midterms, in which the party is projected to lose its majority in the House and possibly the Senate. Surveys have found that on a generic ballot, Democrats have their strongest lead in polling history.